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Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa!'s Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 172
F Grade
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Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa! Drafts Their Way to an F and a 12th Place Finish

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In the West Coast Gangstaz league, Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa! had the unfortunate luck of drafting in the 4th spot. With a draft grade of F, it's safe to say they didn't quite hit the mark. Their projected record of 2-12-0 and projected finish in 12th place only add insult to injury. The team's projected points of 1468.19 are about as impressive as a magic trick gone wrong. It seems like Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa! will have a tough time on their hands, as they face the 5th toughest schedule out of the 12 teams. And let's not forget, they have one player on bye week 11, just to make things even more challenging.

While Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa! did manage to make a decent pick with Michael Pittman Jr. at 93, who had an ADP of 83, their worst pick was a head-scratcher. They reached for D'Andre Swift at 45, despite an ADP of 85. It's like they were playing a game of darts blindfolded and hoping for a bullseye. With this kind of draft performance, it's hard to imagine Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa! making any noise in the league. Perhaps they should consider changing their team name to 'Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa!-st in the League'. It seems more fitting.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 752

One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.

WR - Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 113

In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.

RB - Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 223

Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.

RB - Round 4, Pick 45 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 107

A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.

WR - Round 5, Pick 52 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 179

Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.

WR - Round 6, Pick 69 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 97

Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.

RB - Round 7, Pick 76 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 191 - 2022 Rank: 286

The opposite of a lucky Penny, the San Diego State product has never been able to put together a full, healthy season in the NFL, topping out at 14 games in his rookie campaign and playing just 28 of a possible 66 games in the four years since due to a number of injuries, mainly to his lower body. Seattle let him hobble out the door after his rookie contract expired, and the Eagles were able to sign him to a cheap one-year deal despite the fact the 2018 first-round pick has been incredibly productive the last couple of years when he's been on the field. Penny heads into this season as part of a backfield committee that also includes fellow injury-prone newcomer D'Andre Swift and depth options with plenty of experience in the offense in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and the reduced workload that comes with that set-up might just allow the former Seahawk to stay mostly healthy. Penny averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Seattle, and he gets a massive upgrade in blocking with the elite Philadelphia offensive line in front of him, so the per-touch upside is there if he manages to avoid breaking down again.

WR - Round 8, Pick 93 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 152

After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.

RB - Round 9, Pick 100 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 220

Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.

WR - Round 10, Pick 117 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 289 - 2022 Rank: 643

Metchie sat out his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia, but the 2022 second-round pick is expected to return healthy this season. He had 1,142 yards and eight TDs at Alabama in 2021 prior to being drafted 44th overall by the Texans. Metchie will have a chance to carve out a prominent role in Houston's new-look passing attack once he recovers from the hamstring strain he suffered during offseason workouts. Metchie, along with 2023 draft picks Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round) have yet to suit up in the NFL, while the more experienced Robert Woods, Nico Collins and Noah Brown all fell short of 600 receiving yards last season. Metchie's capable of emerging out of that underwhelming group as the top wide receiver for rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud, or at least as a starter. While Metchie's floor is low after a year away from football, there's certainly upside here given the lack of established options ahead of him and the high likelihood that Houston will be forced to pass while playing from behind after going 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons.

TE - Round 11, Pick 124 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 189 - 2022 Rank: 346

Smith is on track to become the Bengals' third starting tight end in as many seasons. In 2022, Hayden Hurst filled that role and caught 52 passes for 414 yards and two touchdowns on 68 targets in 13 games, after C.J. Uzomah caught 49 passes for 493 yards and five TDs on 63 targets in 2021. A 2019 second-round pick, Smith is getting an interesting second chance after signing a one-year, $1.75 million contract this offseason. His last two years in Minnesota were undone by knee surgery and a major ankle injury, with the Vikings opting to trade for fellow tight end T.J. Hockenson after Smith disappointed early last season and then went down with the high-ankle sprain. Now healthy, Smith turns 25 in August and will compete for snaps in a weak TE room that includes Drew Sample, a 2019 second-round pick who suffered a season-ending knee injury after two games last year.

RB - Round 12, Pick 141 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 232 - 2022 Rank: 145

Foreman is one of the true success stories of a player making it back from an Achilles injury. Once Christian McCaffrey was traded away by the Panthers last year, Foreman stepped into a large role. His 203 carries was the first big workload he had in his career. And he responded very well by posting a career-high 4.5 yards per carry. Despite having just a 25th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was 76th percentile in yards after contact. But as good as some of his numbers looked, he was inconsistent. He had five games with at least 113 rushing yards. Conversely, he was held to fewer than 25 yards four times. And his performances weren't based on the level of competition. He had some excellent games against strong defenses while having some poor performances against weaker defenses. Now with Chicago, Foreman should bring the thunder to Khalil Herbert's lighting to form a one-two punch in the backfield. Foreman should profile as the primary goal-line back, though Justin Fields is sure to be a factor at the goal. Even though the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round, Foreman is likely a better RB at this stage, and Johnson may not be a major threat to Foreman's role. In his current situation, Foreman has RB2 or flex value in drafts.

QB - Round 13, Pick 148 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 20

Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.

DEF - Round 14, Pick 165 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 174 - 2022 Rank: 67

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will always be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Chiefs, but the defense could be on the verge of becoming one of their best in a long time. It's already a pretty good defense -- their 55 sacks last year were tied for second behind the Eagles (70), and that was before adding first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State. The Chiefs will continue to see ample pass-rushing opportunities with Mahomes forcing opponents to play catch-up, and both the linebackers and secondary are loaded with young, improving talents.The Chiefs defense is deep and varied with talent, which should afford defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a wide variety of unpredictable personnel and playcalling combinations. High-scoring division or not, the Chiefs should be a good fantasy defense if only due to their pass-rushing and turnover upside.

K - Round 15, Pick 172 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 76

In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Brreeehhh Arrreeeeaaaa!
1. (4) Bijan Robinson (Atl - RB)
2. (21) DK Metcalf (Sea - WR)
3. (28) Alexander Mattison (LV - RB)
4. (45) D'Andre Swift (Chi - RB)
5. (52) Keenan Allen (Chi - WR)
6. (69) Mike Evans (TB - WR)
7. (76) Rashaad Penny (Phi - RB)
8. (93) Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind - WR)
9. (100) Damien Harris (Buf - RB)
10. (117) John Metchie III (Hou - WR)
11. (124) Irv Smith Jr. (KC - TE)
12. (141) D'Onta Foreman (Chi - RB)
13. (148) Tua Tagovailoa (Mia - QB)
14. (165) Kansas City (KC - DEF)
15. (172) Riley Patterson (Jax - K)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.