In a stunning display of draft ineptitude, JHurts’ em managed to secure an impressive F grade, setting themselves up for a projected finish in dead last. With a projected record of 0-14-0, it seems this team is destined for a season of disappointment. Despite having the 11th pick in the draft, they failed to capitalize on their position, leaving them with a roster that is sure to underwhelm.
One shining moment in an otherwise abysmal draft was the selection of Mark Andrews at 54, who was snatched up well before their ADP of 32. Perhaps this pick will be a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak season. On the other hand, the worst pick of the draft goes to Dak Prescott, who was taken at 43 despite having an ADP of 71. It seems JHurts’ em has a knack for making questionable decisions.
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
WR - Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 54
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
WR - Round 2, Pick 22 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 67
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
QB - Round 3, Pick 43 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 17
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
TE - Round 4, Pick 54 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 28 - 2022 Rank: 134
Andrews had a massive year in 2021 with personal bests by margins of 43 catches (107) and 509 yards (1,361), including the most productive stretch of his career while catching passes from backup QB Tyler Huntley. It was a much different story in 2022, when Andrews averaged 63.1 yards in the nine games for which he and Lamar Jackson both were healthy but then dropped to 49.2 yards in five regular-season games with Huntley taking most of the snaps. All five of Andrews' TDs came from Jackson, who inked a five-year extension with Baltimore this offseason and now has more help after the signing of WR Odell Beckham and drafting of WR Zay Flowers. That amounts to more target competition for Andrews, but he's still the most trusted of Baltimore's receiving options and could end up running more routes under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, formerly the OC at Georgia. Kansas City's Travis Kelce remains in a league of his own, of course, but it's otherwise hard to name another tight end with a floor or ceiling higher than Andrews'.
RB - Round 5, Pick 75 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 243
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
DEF - Round 6, Pick 86 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 61
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
CB - Round 7, Pick 107 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1395 - 2022 Rank: 432
WR - Round 8, Pick 118 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 181
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
WR - Round 9, Pick 139 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 124 - 2022 Rank: 627
As much as it's fair to find Moore's 2022 rookie season disappointing, it would be harsh to describe it as a failure. The Chiefs run a sophisticated offense and went into 2022 with plenty of veteran wide receiver depth, so there was never much realistic room for Moore to draw usage as a rookie. Moore was a slot specialist out of the MAC, not to mention an underclassman, so it's to be expected that he couldn't reliably earn slot snaps over the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are no longer on the team, moreover, so there's less slot competition for Moore going into 2023. Valdes-Scantling can only draw so many targets and Kadarius Toney has seen persistent injury issues in the NFL, so there's a good chance that the Chiefs lean on Moore for a meaningful workload behind Travis Kelce. Moore just needs to polish his game enough to hold off free-agent pickup Richie James, a lesser talent than Moore but one good enough to steal slot snaps if Moore struggles.
WR - Round 10, Pick 150 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 108 - 2022 Rank: 131
Jones is coming off a breakout season in which he set career highs in targets (121), catches (82) and receiving yards (823). He also had five touchdowns, which was the 28-year-old's second most behind his seven TDs with Buffalo in 2018. After being used deeper downfield by the Bills and Raiders, Jones' increased success coincided with a change in role after joining Jacksonville. His average depth of target dropped from 14.0 yards with the Raiders in 2021 to 8.6 with the Jaguars in 2022, as Trevor Lawrence peppered Jones with targets underneath and set the wide receiver up to do damage after the catch. Jones should play a similar role in 2023, though matching last season's volume will be difficult, as Jacksonville added WR Calvin Ridley while retaining WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, who soaked up 133 and 98 targets in 2022. If Jones can cut down on his drops -- he led the league with 13 last season - and improve on last year's lackluster 6.8 yards per target, he could replicate last year's production despite the expected dip in volume.
LB - Round 11, Pick 171 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1239 - 2022 Rank: 1107
DT - Round 12, Pick 182 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1873 - 2022 Rank: 1050
WR - Round 13, Pick 203 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 211 - 2022 Rank: 334
Chark hasn't done much for fantasy managers since breaking out in his second season (2019) for 1,008 receiving yards and eight TDs. He was stuck in terrible Jacksonville offenses until last year, and he then missed six games last season in Detroit, bringing his three-year total to 22 absences. He did come on strong late in the year for the Lions, averaging 3.3 catches for 57.7 yards on 4.7 targets over the final seven games (two TDs). It was enough to land a one-year contract with significant guarantees for a second consecutive offseason, though the 2018 second-rounder settled for $5 million from Carolina after getting twice that from Detroit a year earlier. In Carolina, the 26-year-old joins Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo at wide receiver as the likely top options for QB Bryce Young, the first overall pick in this year's draft. Chark underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp, where he could quickly emerge as the team's best downfield option under new head coach Frank Reich.
CB - Round 14, Pick 214 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1388 - 2022 Rank: 478
QB - Round 15, Pick 235 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 176 - 2022 Rank: 32
There's some concern about the foot that Garoppolo injured in December and underwent surgical repair in March. That concern led the Raiders to word Garoppolo's three-year, $72.75 million contract such that he can be cut with no cap penalty unless he passes a physical at some unspecified point. The Raiders presumably plan on Garoppolo passing said physical, or else they (A) wouldn't have bothered pursuing him with such a high-dollar contract and (B) they would have done something more about the quarterback position otherwise than just signing Brian Hoyer and spending a fourth-round pick on Aidan Hutchinson. If Garoppolo is toast then so is the Raiders offense, and coach Josh McDaniels certainly doesn't want that, especially after such a disastrous 2022 season. If Garoppolo can stay healthy then he should be a stabilizing presence for the Raiders as they move on from Derek Carr, who did not take well to McDaniels' scheme. Garoppolo's familiarity with McDaniels from their New England days should hopefully make Garoppolo a better fit in 2023 than Carr was in 2022. With Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow to throw to, it would seem like Garoppolo has the necessary help to move the ball as long as that foot cooperates.
LB - Round 16, Pick 246 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1098 - 2022 Rank: 264
As could be expected for a first-round pick, Walker was immediately slotted into a starting role among the Packers' linebacker corps in 2022. He led the team in tackles - an impressive feat - despite tallying five or fewer stops in six contests. That was a sign of his immaturity as a player, as were the two games from which he was ejected for making contact with an opposing coach. While there are areas to smooth out, Walker also proved quickly why he was worthy of a first-round selection. In addition to his aforementioned run-stopping ability, Walker was also able to quickly translate his athleticism into effective coverage by breaking up seven passes. Assuming he can become more consistent in his decision-making and level of play, Walker has every opportunity to vault up these rankings and is a prime breakout candidate.
RB - Round 17, Pick 267 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 180 - 2022 Rank: 1618
The Saints invested a third-round pick in Miller this April as they started to prepare for the transition from Alvin Kamara, which may be a couple of years away. Although Miller has the traits to be an early down RB, he's far from a sure thing. He looked slow on inside runs in college and often tried to break runs outside instead of using his 215-pound frame to attack defenders. The Saints also brought in veteran back Jamaal Williams, a reliable runner between the tackles who won't make anyone miss and can't outrun defensive backs. That makes Miller the more explosive option while Kamara serves a three-game suspension to start the season, but it isn't clear how much the Saints value the rookie's speed and acceleration relative to Williams' reliability as a pass blocker and inside runner.
TE - Round 18, Pick 278 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 325
Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.
K - Round 19, Pick 299 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 215 - 2022 Rank: 1875
With Robbie Gould no longer with the 49ers, the team drafted Moody with a third-round pick. With that type of investment, Moody, who converted 87 percent of his field-goal attempts at Michigan, has a strong chance to enter the year as the starter. Due to the explosiveness of the 49ers offense, Moody should have a solid weekly scoring floor, and is worth considering as a top-12 option at his position.
DE - Round 20, Pick 310 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1652 - 2022 Rank: 541
DT - Round 21, Pick 331 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1858 - 2022 Rank: 382
CB - Round 22, Pick 342 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1437 - 2022 Rank: 2042
RB - Round 23, Pick 363 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 305 - 2022 Rank: 307
Edmonds started last year with the Dolphins and was paid to be the lead back, but he didn't seem to fit with the system and fell into a minor role. Then after being shipped to Denver at the trade deadline, he suffered a high-ankle sprain. However, with his 26 carries for the Broncos, he looked more like the version of himself when he was with the Cardinals the previous four years. Now with the Buccaneers, he only has to beat out Rachaad White for a role in the offense. As an afterthought in drafts, spending a late pick makes sense due to potential role and upside.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.