Fields of Dreams's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 23, Pick 354
C Grade
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justin's Outstanding Team: A C-grade Draft for a 7th Place Finish

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In the 16 Team Dive 🎖️ league, justin's Outstanding Team had the privilege of picking second in the draft. With 23 rounds to work with, they managed to assemble a roster that left the draft grade machine unimpressed, earning them a solid C. However, don't let that deter you from their projected finish of 7th place. Who needs an A-grade when you can have a C and still end up in the middle of the pack? With a projected record of 8-6-0 and 3517.44 projected points, justin's Outstanding Team is set to achieve mediocrity at its finest.

While justin's Outstanding Team may not have made the best and worst picks of the draft, they did manage to gather an impressive collection of players from a single team. With Shaquille Leonard, DeForest Buckner, Alec Pierce, Kenyan Drake, and Indianapolis all donning the same jersey, it's clear that justin's Outstanding Team is a firm believer in the power of team unity. And let's not forget their best pick, T.J. Hockenson, who was snatched up at 63, beating his ADP of 40. On the other hand, their worst pick, Justin Fields, was taken at 34, falling short of his ADP of 49. But hey, who needs conformity when you can mix things up and keep everyone guessing? With justin's Outstanding Team, expect the unexpected, because they certainly won't disappoint in that department.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 24

After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.

WR - Round 2, Pick 31 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 105

Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.

QB - Round 3, Pick 34 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 69 - 2022 Rank: 13

Fields had the second-best rushing season ever for a quarterback, and the Bears really didn't turn him loose until just before mid season. Durability down the stretch became a concern, as he injured his shoulder. Fields lacked legitimate receiving weapons last season. As a result, it was very difficult for the passing game to have any consistency. There was a short period of time after the coaching staff opened up the offense in which he had both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, and they had moderate success during that time. But Fields threw for over 190 yards just twice, with 254 being his highest mark of the season. However, he did throw touchdown passes in 11 of his last 13 games. With the team adding DJ Moore at receiver, Fields now goes into 2023 with a legitimate arsenal of weapons. If he's even passable as a thrower, this offense can quickly make a massive jump forward. And as long as Fields has his rushing ability, he'll be a very high-floor fantasy option. Improved passing production could make him elite.

TE - Round 4, Pick 63 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 107

Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.

WR - Round 5, Pick 66 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 106

Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.

RB - Round 6, Pick 95 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 188

Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.

DEF - Round 7, Pick 98 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 165 - 2022 Rank: 73

The Bills are staring down a worrying amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball, with DC Leslie Frazier moving away from coaching and MLB Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Von Miller is working his way back from an ACL tear and in danger of getting off to a slow start, but this is a unit that should return 10 of 11 starters. Coach Sean McDermott reportedly intends to call plays, which should provide this unit with a reasonable floor at least. However, the Bills are facing an extremely difficult schedule and won't have many victories handed to them, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets places Buffalo in perhaps the NFL's toughest division. The Dolphins offense should again be high-scoring, while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem situated for improvement with new OC Bill O'Brien at the helm.

WR - Round 8, Pick 127 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 1582

Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.

DE - Round 9, Pick 130 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 1624 - 2022 Rank: 350

K - Round 10, Pick 159 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 187

Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.

WR - Round 11, Pick 162 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 154 - 2022 Rank: 1003

Williams will miss the first six games of the year due to suspension. As a rookie last year, he was eased into the lineup after suffering an ACL injury during his last year in college. He was targeted nine times, but he showed game-breaking speed -- his only catch was a 41-yard touchdown. Even when he was running routes on which he wasn't targeted, he usually looked like the fastest player on the field. And although it didn't show up on the stat sheet, he had a 66-yard touchdown called back by penalty. In fantasy drafts, he should be treated with the uncertainty of a supremely talented rookie with a ceiling of 11 games played. But the traits that led him to be a first-round pick are apparent.

LB - Round 12, Pick 191 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 1185 - 2022 Rank: 979

Leonard was on the way to establishing himself as one of the most well-rounded middle linebackers in the league. Across his first four relatively healthy seasons in the league, he posted 15 sacks, 30 passes defended, and 11 interceptions. That doesn't account for the fact that he also had over 120 tackles in each of those campaigns. Unfortunately, both his long and short-term future in the league may be in jeopardy. Leonard had two surgeries on his neck and back in the span of roughly five months in 2022. That limited him to only three games last year and has also kept him off the field during off-season team activities in 2023. Both Leonard and the team have publicly stated they hope he is available to begin the regular season, but his potential IDP value will depend entirely on his health outlook come training camp.

CB - Round 13, Pick 194 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 1006 - 2022 Rank: 427

WR - Round 14, Pick 223 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 182 - 2022 Rank: 438

Offseason knee surgery kept Jefferson out until Week 8 last season. When he returned, he had every opportunity to capitalize in the Rams' injury-riddled offense. By the time the team was down to a third-string quarterback and a bunch of depth pieces at wide receiver, Jefferson was seeing close to five targets per game. But he didn't do much with his opportunity, finishing with 24 receptions, 369 yards and three scores. He never caught more than three passes in a game. And that was with playing 64 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he frequently would get a free release from the line. The Rams traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers this offseason, leaving Jefferson as the No. 2 wideout to Cooper Kupp. That should give him plenty of opportunities this season to be a weekly threat in the passing game.

LB - Round 15, Pick 226 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 1202 - 2022 Rank: 290

David signed a modest one-year, $1.1 million contract this offseason to remain with the Buccaneers for a 12th NFL campaign. Despite his relatively advanced age and heavy workload during his career, David managed 123 tackles last year -- his most since 2019. He also played more than 1,000 snaps for the third time in the last four seasons, an impeccable record of consistency and availability. It's possible that we see his role shift in 2023, however. Tampa Bay spent a fifth-round pick on SirVocea Dennis, whose instincts make him an ideal player to apprentice with the veteran linebacker. If the team elects to begin the transition this year - a possibility considering the likelihood that the Buccaneers aren't competing for the playoffs -- David's volume would suffer even if his per-play efficiency remains consistent.

DT - Round 16, Pick 255 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 1844 - 2022 Rank: 402

TE - Round 17, Pick 258 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 191

Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.

WR - Round 18, Pick 287 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 237 - 2022 Rank: 294

Pierce is coming off a boom-or-bust rookie season. The 2022 second-round pick out of Cincinnati caught 41 of 78 targets for 593 yards and two touchdowns, including seven catches for 243 yards and a touchdown on his 15 deep targets. Pierce ranked third on the team in targets as a rookie, but the speedy big-play threat is penciled into a starting role opposite Michael Pittman (141 targets in 2022) after the Colts let Parris Campbell (91 targets) walk in free agency. Indianapolis added slot receivers Josh Downs and Isaiah McKenzie to replace Campbell, but the team's most impactful offseason changes came under center. The Colts parted ways with Matt Ryan and brought in fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson, as well as free agent Gardner Minshew. Richardson's strong arm and Pierce's 4.41 speed could make for an intriguing downfield combination, but it remains to be seen if the raw rookie has the accuracy to consistently link up with the second-year wideout.

RB - Round 19, Pick 290 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 2386 - 2022 Rank: 175

QB - Round 20, Pick 319 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 251 - 2022 Rank: 41

Mayfield has been right around a 60% passer in his career. As a rookie in 2018, he completed 63.8% and then last year in five games with Sean McVay, he completed 63.6%, the second-best mark of his career. Actually, his 2020 in-season was probably his best (his rookie year was close) when he attempted just 486 passes in a run-heavy offense but had a 26:8 TD: INT. He played with a messed-up shoulder in 2021. And then last year he went between Carolina and the Rams. It seems that during his time in Cleveland, he didn't mesh with Odell Beckham because Beckham was one of the greatest freelancers of our time while Mayfield needs plays to run on schedule. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Chris Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but with two excellent weapons in Godwin and Mike Evans, he has potential for top-24 QB value.

RB - Round 21, Pick 322 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 333 - 2022 Rank: 992

Spiller's rookie season last year was disappointing, and he enters 2023 completely unproven. Spiller was on the field for just 53 snaps last season, taking 18 carries for 41 yards. Much more was expected of Spiller when the Chargers selected him in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. That said, Spiller is still more of a blank slate than a dirtied one. He only turned 21 on the Aug. 9 last year, meaning even a year later he's still younger than many running backs still in the college ranks. If Spiller improves with experience -- and conventional prospect trajectory says he will -- then the former Texas A&M star could put pressure on Joshua Kelley for the privilege of backing up Austin Ekeler in 2023.

LB - Round 22, Pick 351 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 1286 - 2022 Rank: 663

DEF - Round 23, Pick 354 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 247 - 2022 Rank: 89

Of the Colts' seven Pro Bowlers in 2021, three played on defense. All three of DT DeForest Buckner, LB Shaquille Leonard and CB Kenny Moore are still on the team, but Leonard and Moore both missed extensive time due to injury in 2022. Indianapolis drafted CB Julius Brents in the second round to replace the departing Stephon Gilmore, but the biggest key to improvement on defense may be out of DC's Gus Bradley's control. The Colts gave up the third-most PPG (25.1) last year despite being in the middle of the pack in yards allowed due to the team's turnovers and struggles on offense. Potential improvement on the offensive side spearheaded by rookie QB Anthony Richardson and a healthy Jonathan Taylor -- if the latter's feud with the front office is sorted out -- could lead to a fresher and more effective Indianapolis defense in 2023.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Fields of Dreams
1. (2) Christian McCaffrey (SF - RB)
2. (31) Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR)
3. (34) Justin Fields (Pit - QB)
4. (63) T.J. Hockenson (Min - TE)
5. (66) Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
6. (95) James Cook (Buf - RB)
7. (98) Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
8. (127) Odell Beckham Jr. (Bal - WR)
9. (130) Myles Garrett (Cle - DE)
10. (159) Evan McPherson (Cin - K)
11. (162) Jameson Williams (Det - WR)
12. (191) Shaquille Leonard (Phi - LB)
13. (194) Trevon Diggs (Dal - CB)
14. (223) Van Jefferson (Pit - WR)
15. (226) Lavonte David (TB - LB)
16. (255) DeForest Buckner (Ind - DT)
17. (258) Tyler Higbee (LAR - TE)
18. (287) Alec Pierce (Ind - WR)
19. (290) Kenyan Drake (Bal - RB)
20. (319) Baker Mayfield (TB - QB)
21. (322) Isaiah Spiller (LAC - RB)
22. (351) Von Miller (Buf - LB)
23. (354) Indianapolis (Ind - DEF)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.