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PNW Problems's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 23, Pick 362
D Grade
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PNW Problems: Drafting Their Way to 11th Place with a Solid D Grade

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In the depths of the 16 Team Dive 🎖️ league, PNW Problems found themselves with the 10th pick in the draft. With 23 rounds to navigate, they managed to secure a draft grade of D, leaving fantasy experts scratching their heads. Projected to finish 11th with a record of 5-9-0, it seems PNW Problems is living up to their team name.

While they did make a solid pick with Zay Flowers at 138, snagging him 11 spots later than his ADP, their worst pick of Khalil Herbert at 87, 18 spots ahead of his ADP, left a lot to be desired. With a schedule difficulty ranked 13th toughest out of 16 teams and four players on bye week 9, PNW Problems will need some serious magic to overcome their obstacles. Perhaps they can summon a solution from the depths of the Pacific Northwest.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 1596

One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.

WR - Round 2, Pick 23 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 65

After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.

RB - Round 3, Pick 42 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: 1597

The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.

WR - Round 4, Pick 55 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 1566

Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.

TE - Round 5, Pick 74 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 408

Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.

RB - Round 6, Pick 87 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 143

Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.

QB - Round 7, Pick 106 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 44 - 2022 Rank: 1591

The Colts couldn't pass up Richardson's tremendous athletic upside with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The rookie out of Florida is raw, having completed only 53.8 percent of his passes last season, but Richardson has one of the most impressive physical profiles ever among QB prospects. Richarson has a cannon for an arm at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, plus he boasts 4.44 speed and set the QB record at the NFL Combine with a 40.5-inch vertical jump. Indianapolis also brought in Gardner Minshew in free agency, but it's likely just a matter of time until Richardson is handed the reins to the offense, and the rookie should be involved in short yardage and goal-line packages from the get-go. Even under the tutelage of head coach Shane Steichen, who oversaw the meteoric rise of fellow dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator over the past two seasons, Richardson will likely struggle as a passer early in his NFL career, especially with few established targets to throw to besides Michael Pittman in a run-first offense centered around RB Jonathan Taylor. Still, Richardson's rushing ability (nine rushing TDs in 2022) makes him the most intriguing member of this rookie QB class from a fantasy perspective, as Justin Fields proved last year that you don't need to be a proficient passer to find significant fantasy success as a QB in the modern NFL.

WR - Round 8, Pick 119 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 390

Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.

WR - Round 9, Pick 138 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 1590

Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.

LB - Round 10, Pick 151 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 1291 - 2022 Rank: 537

DL,DT - Round 11, Pick 170 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 1784 - 2022 Rank: 580

LB - Round 12, Pick 183 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 1203 - 2022 Rank: 254

Jewell was limited to only two games in 2021 due to a torn pectoral, and he appeared to be in for another injury-marred season in 2022. He managed to suit up for only three of Denver's first seven games due to calf and knee injuries. However, he showed exactly what he's capable of when healthy across the second half of the campaign by racking up double-digit tackles across seven of his final nine matchups. All told, he managed a career-high 128 stops and surpassed the century mark for the second time in his career. Jewell is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and he'll be locked into a starting inside linebacker along fellow prolific tackler Alex Singleton. Assuming health is on his side, Jewell is a decent bet to top 150 tackles to go along with some sacks, pass breakups, and forced fumbles.

DB,S - Round 13, Pick 202 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 390 - 2022 Rank: 309

The Bears selected Brisker in the second round of the 2022 Draft, and he immediately proved to be an impact player. Though he plays in the secondary, he made plays all over the field by proving adept at rushing the passer as illustrated by his four sacks. He was steady as a tackler and willing to help stop the run game, racking up 104 stops in 15 games. Of course, he also had responsibilities in coverage and chipped in two passes defended and a pick. Working alongside veteran safety Eddie Jackson should allow Brisker to continue to improve and potentially begin to approach top-flight status as an IDP. That's particularly true because his production isn't reliant solely upon racking up tackles.

RB - Round 14, Pick 215 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 183 - 2022 Rank: 82

Wilson re-signs with Miami to spend a sixth straight season in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Four of those years were in San Francisco, where Wilson proved himself as a more than capable rotational option. Durability issues have remained constant as well, though. Wilson hasn't managed to suit up for double-digit games since 2020, and he's only managed that feat twice in his NFL career. After joining the Dolphins mid-season via trade from San Francisco last year, Wilson established himself in a roughly even timeshare alongside Raheem Mostert, though he was the volume leader prior to injuring his hip. Miami could proceed with an identical layout to open the 2023 slate, with Mostert also having re-signed this offseason, but rookie third-round pick De'Von Achane reportedly began pushing for opportunities early in OTAs. Wilson is a solid pass-catcher and showed elite efficiency last season (5.1 YPC), but he'll open this year on injured reserve and thus is set to miss at least four games.

QB - Round 15, Pick 234 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 238 - 2022 Rank: 1587

The good news is that Young will have an impressive pair of tackles (Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton) protecting him during his rookie season, which should ensure he's not overwhelmed by pressure. The bad news is that the rest of the team surrounding this year's No. 1 overall pick appears considerably less talented. The Panthers traded away top receiver DJ Moore as part of the deal to acquire Young, revamping their receiving corps with veterans Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst -- none of whom came anywhere close to 1,000 yards last season. There is at least some upside for the receiving corps in the form of rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo and third-year WR Terrace Marshall, though neither is a sure thing or even assured of a starting job. Young, of course, comes with question marks of his own despite being a first overall pick who put up massive numbers at Alabama. He's only 5-10, and lacks the speed of fellow undersized No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. While his accuracy and anticipation may be enough to overcome that in the long run, Young isn't likely to put up huge numbers as a rookie given that he's not a prolific rusher and isn't in a great situation for efficient passing in the first year of head coach Frank Reich's tenure in Carolina. A realistic hope is for the rookie to have value in superflex and two-QB formats, perhaps entering the streaming conversation in single-QB leagues once byes kick in later in the season.

WR - Round 16, Pick 247 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 110 - 2022 Rank: 358

Collins finished third on the Texans with 66 targets last season, and he's remarkably the only player among the team's top six in that category returning in 2023 for a remade Houston passing attack that also will be helmed by a new QB -- rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud. Brandin Cooks (93 targets in 2022) and Chris Moore (74) both left for greener pastures, but the Texans brought in a bevy of WRs to replace those outgoing options. Houston signed Robert Woods and Noah Bown in free agency, drafted Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round), and should get 2022 second-round pick John Metchie back after he missed his entire rookie season. The Texans also have a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, so Collins won't have much of an incumbent advantage, but the 2021 third-round pick should be ticketed for a prominent role if he can stay healthy after missing 10 games due to injuries over his first two seasons. In the 24 games he played, Collins caught 70 of 126 targets for 927 yards and three touchdowns, but his efficiency could improve significantly if Stroud proves to be an upgrade over Davis Mills, who remains on the roster after starting at QB in each of Collins' first two seasons. Collins' 6-foot-4 frame could theoretically make him an enticing target in the red zone, though such success hasn't materialized in what's been a lackluster Houston offense in recent years.

WR - Round 17, Pick 266 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 200 - 2022 Rank: 177

Osborn came alive late last season, showing upside for a bigger role this season. After averaging 23 receiving yards per game in his first 13 games with three touchdowns, Osborn had games of 157 and 117 yards in the last four weeks, averaging 87.5 yards per game and scoring twice. But increased targets is far from guaranteed after the Vikings used a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison this spring, and Osborn likely will remain in the No. 3 role, even though the team moved on from Adam Thielen. Plus, tight end T.J. Hockenson could get more work after joining the team midseason last year. At 5-foot-11, 203, with 4.48 speed, Osborn could produce if given the chance. But he'll likely need an injury to Justin Jefferson or Addison for that to happen.

DEF - Round 18, Pick 279 - Bye 14

2023 Rank: 227 - 2022 Rank: 78

The Commanders' star-studded defensive line remained stout in 2022 even with Chase Young only playing three games, but issues in the secondary led to a poor overall first-half performance. The unit turned things around over the final couple months, and Washington finished the season in the top 10 in points per game allowed and 12th in sacks. 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes should reinforce the back end, while Cody Barton comes over from Seattle to bolster the linebacking corps, but Young finally living up to his potential will likely be the key to this defense being great instead of merely good.

LB - Round 19, Pick 298 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 1117 - 2022 Rank: 778

Al-Shaair has had an impressive rise in his professional career, progressing from undrafted free agent to a key figure in the 49ers defense. Primarily a special teams contributor for the two seasons of his career, Al-Shaair emerged as an impressive per-game producer in both 2021 and 2022. The biggest issue for him has been his ability to stay on the field, as he's played only 25 games combined across the last two seasons. In that same span, he racked up a combined 146 tackles with two sacks, five passes defended, and two picks. Even when healthy, the 49ers used Al-Shaair in a rotational role due to their impressive defensive personnel. That isn't the case in Tennessee -- especially after the departure of David Long - so Al-Shaair should have the chance to further improve his production if he can stay on the field.

RB - Round 20, Pick 311 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 224 - 2022 Rank: 148

The Browns let Hunt walk this offseason after his numbers took a big dip in 2022. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per target -- both more than a yard off his pace from the previous season. In 2012, he rushed for five touchdowns in just eight games; last year he had three in 17 games. It might take an injury in training camp before a team calls on Hunt, but he likely will get another shot at some point.

TE - Round 21, Pick 330 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 127 - 2022 Rank: 1605

The Packers needed a lead TE, so they drafted Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in the second and third rounds of this year's NFL Draft. Of the two, Musgrave is more of a seam stretcher. He needs development in all areas, and he could have significant struggles as a rookie. It's probable he finishes outside the top-24 tight ends, and he'll likely go undrafted in many fantasy leagues. While he'll likely be limited to a dynasty league option in 2023, it's still worth keeping an eye on quarterback Jordan Love's progression and the offensive scheme as a whole to see if Musgrave could eventually work his way up to a fantasy streaming possibility.

RB - Round 22, Pick 343 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: 1621

The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.

LB - Round 23, Pick 362 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 1160 - 2022 Rank: 217

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

PNW Problems
1. (10) Bijan Robinson (Atl - RB)
2. (23) Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det - WR)
3. (42) Jahmyr Gibbs (Det - RB)
4. (55) Calvin Ridley (Ten - WR)
5. (74) Darren Waller (NYG - TE)
6. (87) Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB)
7. (106) Anthony Richardson (Ind - QB)
8. (119) Elijah Moore (Cle - WR)
9. (138) Zay Flowers (Bal - WR)
10. (151) T.J. Watt (Pit - LB)
11. (170) Aaron Donald (LAR - DL,DT)
12. (183) Josey Jewell (Car - LB)
13. (202) Jaquan Brisker (Chi - DB,S)
14. (215) Jeff Wilson Jr. (Mia - RB)
15. (234) Bryce Young (Car - QB)
16. (247) Nico Collins (Hou - WR)
17. (266) K.J. Osborn (NE - WR)
18. (279) Washington (Was - DEF)
19. (298) Azeez Al-Shaair (Hou - LB)
20. (311) Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB)
21. (330) Luke Musgrave (GB - TE)
22. (343) Tyjae Spears (Ten - RB)
23. (362) Jordyn Brooks (Mia - LB)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.