In the treacherous depths of the 16 Team Dive 🎖️ league, Paul's Team found themselves swimming against the current from the very start. With the 16th pick in the draft, they faced an uphill battle to assemble a winning roster. Despite their valiant efforts, their draft grade of D and projected finish in 12th place suggest that they may have gotten caught in a riptide of bad luck. Their projected record of 4-10-0 is a reminder that even the most skilled swimmers can struggle in these turbulent waters.
Paul's Team's draft strategy seemed to be a mix of daring and questionable decisions. While they made a savvy move by snagging Allen Lazard at pick 145, well below their ADP of 127, their choice of Daniel Jones at pick 48, much higher than their ADP of 112, left many scratching their heads. It's clear that Paul's Team took some risks, but whether those risks will pay off remains to be seen. With four players on bye week 7 and a schedule difficulty ranked as the 12th toughest out of 16 teams, they'll need to summon all their courage and skill to navigate these choppy waters and avoid sinking like a stone.
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
RB - Round 1, Pick 16 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 44
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
WR - Round 2, Pick 17 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 49
Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.
QB - Round 3, Pick 48 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 11
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
RB - Round 4, Pick 49 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 36
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
WR - Round 5, Pick 80 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 99 - 2022 Rank: 160
Last season, Johnson set a standard for high-volume, low-efficiency receiving, catching 86 passes for 882 yards and nary a touchdown on 147 targets. Even on a team with poor quarterback play, such a performance raises concerns about his target workload moving forward. That's doubly true given that Pittsburgh's second- and third-most targeted players, WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, both managed above-average numbers for pass-pass efficiency. Pickens and Freiermuth also happen to be younger than Johnson, both coming from the second round in recent drafts. On the other hand, Johnson is only two years removed from putting up 1,161 receiving yards and eight TDs -- albeit on 169 targets -- and he's still one of the better receivers in the league when it comes to lateral agility and elusiveness. The drawbacks, of course, are numerous, as he's struggled with drops and is neither big (5-10, 183) nor fast (4.53 40-yard dash) by NFL standards. Johnson is locked in for a starting job and lofty snap counts after the Steelers settled for a post-prime Allen Robinson as their "big" offseason addition to the WR room, but there's major risk of a step back when it comes to target volume. The efficiency almost has to improve, especially if the Pittsburgh offense takes a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro season.
WR - Round 6, Pick 81 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 215
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
QB - Round 7, Pick 112 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 10
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
TE - Round 8, Pick 113 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 200
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
RB - Round 9, Pick 144 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 148 - 2022 Rank: 211
Hubbard, a 2021 fourth-round pick, partnered with D'Onta Foreman last year to lead Carolina's rushing attack after the Christian McCaffrey trade. Following a midseason ankle injury, Hubbard bounced back strong to accumulate 490 yards in the last six games while averaging 5.0 yards per rush. Although Foreman is no longer with the team, the signing of Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million contract leaves Hubbard in a backup role. While there's little question Sanders will be the lead runner, his struggles in the passing game suggest Hubbard could be the top choice for clear passing situations. Neither player is as strong a receiver as probable RB3 Raheem Blackshear, but Hubbard at least showed improvement last year with 1.66 yards per route run, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs. If nothing else, the lack of experience behind the top two on the depth chart suggests Hubbard could get a lot of touches if Sanders misses games this year.
WR - Round 10, Pick 145 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 159
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 176 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 174 - 2022 Rank: 85
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will always be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Chiefs, but the defense could be on the verge of becoming one of their best in a long time. It's already a pretty good defense -- their 55 sacks last year were tied for second behind the Eagles (70), and that was before adding first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State. The Chiefs will continue to see ample pass-rushing opportunities with Mahomes forcing opponents to play catch-up, and both the linebackers and secondary are loaded with young, improving talents.The Chiefs defense is deep and varied with talent, which should afford defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a wide variety of unpredictable personnel and playcalling combinations. High-scoring division or not, the Chiefs should be a good fantasy defense if only due to their pass-rushing and turnover upside.
TE - Round 12, Pick 177 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 255 - 2022 Rank: 405
It remains to be seen how new coach Sean Payton assesses the Denver tight end room, but the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett was certainly a huge fan of Dulcich. Despite missing a handful of OTAs with what was initially described as a core injury and then almost all of training camp with a nagging hamstring issue, Hackett made Dulcich a foundational piece of the team offense, handing Dulcich not just the starting role but a heavy target rate immediately upon his return in Week 6, despite never actually being healthy enough to compete for the job in practice. With minimal blocking assignments, Dulcich was allowed to function basically like Denver's WR3 alongside Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Dulcich is a liability as a blocker and is both smaller and much slower than Albert Okwuegbunam, but it's possible that Dulcich is good enough as a route runner that it doesn't matter. In addition to Okwuegbunam, Dulcich needs to hold off former Saints tight end Adam Trautman, who's a superior blocker to both Dulcich and Okwuegbunam.
WR - Round 13, Pick 208 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 163
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
K - Round 14, Pick 209 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 221 - 2022 Rank: 150
Jacksonville promptly scooped up McManus after the 32-year-old kicker was released by the Broncos earlier this offseason. His career 81.4 percent conversion rate on field goals is nothing to write home about, but McManus has a big leg, and the Broncos didn't hesitate to have him attempt plenty of long kicks in the Denver altitude. Over the previous three seasons, McManus converted all 26 of his field-goal attempts from 40-49 yards but just 23 of 37 from 50-plus. His volume figures to go up on a Jaguars team that averaged 23.8 PPG last season compared to Denver's league-low 16.9, and Jacksonville's more likely to improve than regress in Trevor Lawrence's third season under center.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 240 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 100
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
RB - Round 16, Pick 241 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 261 - 2022 Rank: 1649
Given his performance as both a runner and receiver at Illinois and his impressive athletic performance at the 2023 Scouting Combine, Brown should be taken more seriously than the average fifth-round pick. He also did well to land in Cincinnati, where his impressive speed (4.43 40) and quickness (127-inch broad jump) could play well in a pass-first offense. Over his final two collegiate seasons, Brown ran for 2,648 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns and caught 41 of his 49 targets for 382 yards and three touchdowns (83.7 percent catch rate, 7.8 yards per target) in 22 games for Illinois. Notably, Brown is faster and more skilled than both Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, the two veterans he'll challenge for depth roles behind Joe Mixon. The competition becomes all the more interesting given Mixon's off-field issues and lack of guaranteed salary, though the Bengals thus far have suggested they expect Mixon to stay on the team and handle a key role again.
LB - Round 17, Pick 272 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 890 - 2022 Rank: 588
Andersen, a 2022 second-round pick, began his rookie season in a reserve role but steadily increased his workload as the season progressed. Ultimately, he replaced Mykal Walker as a starting inside linebacker after Atlanta's Week 14 bye and posted 21 tackles across his final four games. He finished his rookie campaign with 69 stops, one forced fumble, and one pass defended. Andersen is known for his speed, which should allow him to stick with opposing backs and tight ends in coverage. It could also mean an increase in pass-rushing responsibility, as he had zero sacks in his rookie campaign. Overall, Andersen should be viewed as a full-time starter heading into his sophomore season, though Walker remains on the roster and could be a threat to Andersen's role if he stumbles.
LB - Round 18, Pick 273 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1159 - 2022 Rank: 546
Owusu-Koramoah made an instant impact among the Browns linebacker corps as a rookie in 2021, playing 584 snaps. He was still in a rotational role in year two but was set to take a step forward before a foot injury sidelined him for the final four games of the campaign. He was on the field for OTAs, so he should be back and fully healthy for the upcoming campaign. There's no doubt that Owusu-Koramoah has a diverse skill set, and he's been asked by the Browns to fill a weakside linebacker role. That leaves him a lot of responsibility in coverage, which he's responded to by tallying a combined eight passes defended through two seasons. He similarly chips in against the run, racking up a combined 146 tackles as a pro. The only thing Owusu-Koramoah hasn't shown is consistent ability as a pass rusher, though perhaps that will come if he finds his way onto the field more in 2023.
RB - Round 19, Pick 304 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 239
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
S - Round 20, Pick 305 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 534 - 2022 Rank: 314
TE - Round 21, Pick 336 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 206 - 2022 Rank: 232
Only seven tight ends have recorded at least 550 yards in each of the past two seasons, and Conklin quietly counts himself among that mark. In similarly under-the-radar fashion, he finished second on the Jets in targets (87), catches (58), receiving yards (552) and TDs (three) last year, behind Garrett Wilson in each category. New York's new-look offense brings a more crowded receiving corps to join Aaron Rodgers, as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman both resemble new competition for targets, but this is also a passing game that looks primed to take a significant step forward as a whole. Conklin remains likely to operate as the team's No. 1 tight end, ahead of C.J. Uzomah and 2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert. It remains to be seen whether that role can lead to an uptick in receiving utility.
DL,DT - Round 22, Pick 337 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1781 - 2022 Rank: 409
LB - Round 23, Pick 368 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1236 - 2022 Rank: 487
Werner looked to be in for a breakout 2022 season, as he posted 71 tackles and three passes defended through the first eight games. However, the 2021 second-round pick went on to suffer a significant ankle injury in Week 9, limiting him to suiting up in just three of New Orleans' final eight games. Despite that setback and playing fewer snaps than his rookie season, Werner still put up career-best production in 2022. In addition to solid tackle totals and work in coverage, he also forced two fumbles. After fellow off-ball linebacker Kaden Elliss left in free agency this offseason, Werner should headline the Saints' relatively thin linebacking corps alongside four-time All-Pro middle linebacker Demario Davis. If he can stay healthy, 2023 could be his true breakout campaign.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.