logo1

Commissioner's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 23, Pick 367
D+ Grade
Draft Grade

Draft Recap Summary

Powered by ChatGPT API

Commissioner's Draft: A D+ Performance That's Fit for a Commissioner

Draft Recap Moderation

Are you sure you want to report this recap? If reported, this recap will not be visible until reviewed by Yahoo Customer Care.

For more information, see Yahoo Help.

In the 16 Team Dive 🎖️ league, Commissioner had the privilege of drafting 15th out of 16 teams. With 23 rounds to work with, they had plenty of opportunities to make some noise. Unfortunately, their draft grade of D+ suggests that the noise they made was more of a whimper. Despite landing the talented Amari Cooper at pick 47, beating out his ADP of 43, Commissioner stumbled with their worst pick, selecting Brandin Cooks at 82 when his ADP was a much more reasonable 113. It seems like the Commissioner may need to brush up on their drafting skills before handing out any more trophies.

Projected to finish 10th with a record of 6-8-0, Commissioner's team is facing an uphill battle. Their projected points of 3512.95 may not be enough to carry them to victory, especially with the 11th toughest schedule out of the 16 teams. To make matters worse, they'll have to navigate through week 7 with a whopping 7 players on bye. It's safe to say that Commissioner's reign over this league may be more ceremonial than dominant. Perhaps they should focus less on making rules and more on making winning picks.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 15 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 23

It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.

RB - Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 46

During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.

WR - Round 3, Pick 47 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 72

Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.

RB - Round 4, Pick 50 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 50

Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.

QB - Round 5, Pick 79 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 2601 - 2022 Rank: 12

The Rodgers era in Green Bay came to a less-than-ceremonious end, but following in the footsteps of Brett Favre before him, the future HOFer stays wearing green by moving on to the Jets. The 39-year-old didn't come cheap, costing New York a handful of early picks, but that will be unquestionably worth the investment if he can truly stabilize a plus roster that was held down last season by unconscionably poor QB play. There is a question of how much Rodgers has left in the tank, though, as his 12 interceptions in 2022 were the most he'd thrown since 2008, his first year as a starter, and just one off totaling his INT mark for the previous three seasons combined. His 3,695 were likewise a career-low mark for a full season. Much can be blamed on Rodgers' lack of playmakers in Green Bay, but it's not as though his arrival in New York comes without any concerns. The Jets' roster will put Rodgers in prime position to avoid another slump, at least, with Garret Wilson headlining an improved receiving corps. Wilson's 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie came in spite of league-worst QB play, while Allen Lazard joined Rodgers as a free agent, allowing speedster Mecole Hardman to slot in as the No. 3 man. If Breece Hall can get back to full speed from his ACL tear, Rodgers will command a plus grouping of offensive skill players, which when paired with Robert Saleh's defense should set the stage for a long awaited playoff run in New York.

WR - Round 6, Pick 82 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 194

For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.

WR - Round 7, Pick 111 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 520

Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.

WR - Round 8, Pick 114 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 144

Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.

LB - Round 9, Pick 143 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 1139 - 2022 Rank: 180

Bolton was selected in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft and has quickly proven to be a force in the middle of the defense. As a rookie, he registered 112 tackles as a part of a rotation amongst the linebacker corps. In his second campaign, Bolton topped 1,000 snaps and increased his production to a whopping 180 tackles (108 solo). As would be expected, his primary assignment is to sit in the middle of the field, leaving him with limited sack upside. On the other hand, the next step in Bolton's career could be his work in coverage, as he picked off two passes in 2022 and also logged three passes deflected. Overall, he should rank among the most sought-after IDP options.

LB - Round 10, Pick 146 - Bye 14

2023 Rank: 1130 - 2022 Rank: 207

Wagner suited up for a team other than the Seahawks for the first time in 2022, as he signed with the division-rival Rams. He has managed at least 100 tackles in each of his 11 seasons as a pro and has proven he can remain productive as he heads into the back end of his career. In fact, he showed a new facet to his game, racking up a career-high six sacks with Los Angeles. Despite things going well away from Seattle on a personal level, Wagner returned to the Seahawks on a one-year deal this offseason. He'll certainly be locked into a starting role, and with Jordyn Brooks on the mend from an ACL tear, Wagner should have the chance to lead the team in tackles.

S - Round 11, Pick 175 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 592 - 2022 Rank: 228

In a move that was hotly debated, the Steelers traded a first-round pick for Fitzpatrick in 2019. He's certainly held up his end of the deal, averaging 100 tackles and four interceptions in his three full seasons with Pittsburgh. Those stats don't accurately describe the impact that Fitzpatrick has on the defense, as he's proven to be a big-play threat in coverage. He's tallied at least nine pass breakups in all but one of his seasons. In addition, his ball-hawking has translated into five career touchdowns, including a 31-yard interception return in a Week 1 win against the Bengals in 2022. That big-play potential is the secret weapon in Fitzpatrick's fantasy arsenal, something that sets him apart from most other IDP options.

LB,DE - Round 12, Pick 178 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 1585 - 2022 Rank: 404

TE - Round 13, Pick 207 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 345

Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.

RB - Round 14, Pick 210 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 184 - 2022 Rank: 58

Elliott posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as his rushing attempts fell for the fourth consecutive year. As a receiver, his yards per reception decreased in each of the last few years as well, bottoming out at 5.4 last year. No surprise, the Cowboys released him in March. However, Elliott scored 12 touchdowns 15 games and likely will be used in a similar goal-line role after signing with the Patriots in August. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, but Elliott could at least cut into a share of his carries, especially in short yardage. Elliott is 28 and definitely on the downside of his career, but injuries were part of his trouble the last two seasons and if he stays healthy he could again have some fantasy value as a goal-line runner.

K - Round 15, Pick 239 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 288 - 2022 Rank: 133

After being a roughly average kicker through his first eight years in the NFL, Gano made some adjustments and has been one of the league's most accurate and reliable legs since 2017. His fantasy value has wavered along with the efficiency of the offenses supporting him, but Brian Daboll turned the Giants into a solid unit last season, and the New York offense could take another step forward in 2023 if quarterback Daniel Jones continues his development and takes advantage of an improved collection of receiving options. Gano has seen either 32 or 33 field-goal attempts in each of his three seasons with the team, but there are reasons to believe his opportunities will increase this year.

WR - Round 16, Pick 242 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 239 - 2022 Rank: 1626

The most encouraging sign for Hyatt as a rookie might be the fact that the Giants traded up to select him in the third round this spring. The Tennessee product showed explosiveness in college and has the speed and length to be a deep threat in the NFL, but he joins a crowded and unsettled depth chart in New York. Hyatt mainly played the slot for the Volunteers, but the Giants already have free-agent signing Parris Campbell and 2022 second-round pick Wan'Dale Robinson competing for that role, and Sterling Shepard can't be ruled out of the mix either if he comes back healthy from his latest injury. Hyatt might have the highest upside of that group and is the player the team sees as part of its future at wide receiver, but he'll need to earn his snaps in 2023.

WR - Round 17, Pick 271 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 283 - 2022 Rank: 182

A career backup, Hollins was thrust into a starting role last season to fill the void at outside receiver for the Raiders. He blew away his career highs with 57 catches and 604 yards. He was at his best as a perimeter presence, but with a 33rd-percentile yards-after-catch rate, he had just 10.6 yards per reception. Hollins signed with the Falcons this offseason and is expected to fill the No. 2 WR role behind Drake London. At 6-foot-4, 221, Hollins could be a factor in the red zone as well. But the Falcons are a run-first team with unproven QB Desmond Ridder at the helm. And while he could be second on the wideout depth chart, he still might be third in the passing game with tight end Kyle Pitts commanding considerable targets.

DEF - Round 18, Pick 274 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 163 - 2022 Rank: 122

In 2022, the Browns' secondary was solid, but their defense struggled significantly against the run. Their fantasy performance was also disappointing, as they ranked 20th with 20 takeaways and 27th with 34 sacks. The Browns have made significant changes in the offseason to improve, however, namely trading for pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and signing DT Dalvin Tomlinson to a large contract. With those two joining DE Myles Garrett up front, the Browns suddenly look strong on paper at all three levels, though it's fair to be skeptical given their track record of underperforming with talented rosters.

LB - Round 19, Pick 303 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 1205 - 2022 Rank: 462

Vander Esch had his most productive season as a rookie in 2018 and has had his progress slowed since by a series of upper body injuries. He was on pace to top the 100-tackle mark in 2022 until he was sidelined by a neck issue from Weeks 16-18. Despite his checkered health history, the Cowboys signed the 27-year-old to a one-year, $2 million prove-it deal this offseason. Given his experience, Vander Esch will likely begin 2023 with a starting role, but the team also boasts a collection of young, athletic talent at linebacker that now includes 2023 third-round pick DeMarvion Overshown. Add in his extended injury history and Vander Esch seems likely to see his snap count diminish this season.

RB - Round 20, Pick 306 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 277 - 2022 Rank: 224

S - Round 21, Pick 335 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 559 - 2022 Rank: 306

QB - Round 22, Pick 338 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 170 - 2022 Rank: 1589

The Texans selected Stroud second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the highly touted rookie out of Ohio State is expected to start right away over Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Stroud has all the physical tools to succeed out of the gate, but his processing ability was shaky in pre-draft testing, and he'll have to buck the trend of NFL underperformance for quarterbacks coming out of Ohio State. An even bigger issue for Stroud early on could be Houston's lack of playmakers. After posting an 85:12 TD: INT over the past two seasons in an Ohio State offense that included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Stroud will helm a Houston offense without a single player that reached 600 receiving yards last season. His top weapons figure to be WRs Robert Woods and Nico Collins, along with TE Dalton Schultz, but Houston's offense will likely revolve around second-year RB Dameon Pierce. Perhaps the decently mobile Stroud can find some fantasy relevance by using his legs, but that wasn't a strong suit of his in college, as Stroud didn't post a single regular season rushing TD in his two years as the starter at Ohio State.

LB,S - Round 23, Pick 367 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 702 - 2022 Rank: 242

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Commissioner
1. (15) Derrick Henry (Bal - RB)
2. (18) Joe Mixon (Hou - RB)
3. (47) Amari Cooper (Cle - WR)
4. (50) Alvin Kamara (NO - RB)
5. (79) Aaron Rodgers (NYJ - QB)
6. (82) Brandin Cooks (Dal - WR)
7. (111) Kadarius Toney (KC - WR)
8. (114) JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE - WR)
9. (143) Nick Bolton (KC - LB)
10. (146) Bobby Wagner (Was - LB)
11. (175) Minkah Fitzpatrick (Pit - S)
12. (178) Brian Burns (NYG - LB,DE)
13. (207) Chigoziem Okonkwo (Ten - TE)
14. (210) Ezekiel Elliott (NE - RB)
15. (239) Graham Gano (NYG - K)
16. (242) Jalin Hyatt (NYG - WR)
17. (271) Mack Hollins (Buf - WR)
18. (274) Cleveland (Cle - DEF)
19. (303) Leighton Vander Esch (Dal - LB)
20. (306) Melvin Gordon III (Bal - RB)
21. (335) Tyrann Mathieu (NO - S)
22. (338) C.J. Stroud (Hou - QB)
23. (367) Isaiah Simmons (NYG - LB,S)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.