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Mangeaux's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 16, Pick 181
A- Grade
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Mangeaux Drafts Their Way to an A- Grade and a Mediocre 3rd Place Finish

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In the highly competitive Boysies Football 2.0 league, Mangeaux came out swinging with the coveted 1st draft order. With 16 rounds to work their magic, they managed to secure an impressive A- draft grade. Projected to finish 3rd with a record of 11-3-0, Mangeaux seems poised to make a decent run in the playoffs. However, their projected points of 2000.17 might not be enough to truly dominate the league.

While Mangeaux made some solid picks, their draft wasn't without its quirks. The best pick of the night goes to their selection of Bijan Robinson at 49, a steal considering their ADP of 10. On the other hand, their worst pick was Jahan Dotson at 73, who had an ADP of 99. Mangeaux also took a bold strategy by drafting three players from the same team: Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Tyler Allgeier. Perhaps they're hoping for some serious synergy, or maybe they just really like that team's jerseys. Either way, Mangeaux is ready to take on the league, one mange at a time.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

QB - Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4

Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.

QB - Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 61 - 2022 Rank: 17

By now it's safe to call Herbert one of the league's elite quarterbacks, even after a somewhat disappointing 2022 season saw his touchdown rate and per-pass yardage decline from his 2021 and 2020 seasons. It didn't make much sense for Herbert to only throw for 25 touchdowns in 2022 after throwing for 69 touchdowns over the two prior seasons, so the Chargers decided to make a switch at offensive coordinator, deleting Joe Lombardi's dink-and-dunk offense for a Kellen Moore scheme that will hopefully do more to unleash Herbert's standout downfield passing ability. Between Moore's addition and the selection of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, it's shaping up to be a bounce-back season for Herbert and the Chargers offense. Although it seems Herbert won't ever be inclined to run much, he still has the athleticism to do so. He could provide fantasy production similar to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen if he can just get his per-pass yardage up over 8.0 yards per attempt. If Herbert's pass attempt volume stabilizes while his per-pass returns spike upward, something like a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season could be on the table. He was already close in 2021, when he threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns.

WR - Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 40

The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.

RB - Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 82 - 2022 Rank: 89

Pierce was a pleasant surprise for the Texans as a rookie, even if the 2022 fourth-round pick's heroics didn't translate to many wins. After averaging 5.5 YPC as part of a platoon in college at Florida, Pierce rushed for 939 yards and four TDs in 13 games for the Texans before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Pierce's 4.3 YPC in Houston was nothing to write home about, but that production came in the context of few threats in the passing game to keep defenses from keying on the run. The Texans are hoping to have changed that by drafting QB C.J. Stroud second overall in 2023. While they also bolstered their backfield depth by signing former Bills RB Devin Singletary, Pierce should continue to handle the majority of the workload as long as he's healthy. To that end, Pierce has been practicing at full speed at OTAs, suggesting he has long since put the ankle injury behind him. There's also room for further growth as a pass catcher for Pierce, as Houston still has an underwhelming receiving corps. Pierce caught 30 of 39 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown as a rookie.

RB - Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: -

One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.

TE - Round 6, Pick 61 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 276

Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.

WR - Round 7, Pick 73 - Bye 14

2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 179

Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.

WR - Round 8, Pick 85 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 155

Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.

WR - Round 9, Pick 97 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 117

Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.

QB - Round 10, Pick 109 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 170 - 2022 Rank: -

The Texans selected Stroud second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the highly touted rookie out of Ohio State is expected to start right away over Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Stroud has all the physical tools to succeed out of the gate, but his processing ability was shaky in pre-draft testing, and he'll have to buck the trend of NFL underperformance for quarterbacks coming out of Ohio State. An even bigger issue for Stroud early on could be Houston's lack of playmakers. After posting an 85:12 TD: INT over the past two seasons in an Ohio State offense that included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Stroud will helm a Houston offense without a single player that reached 600 receiving yards last season. His top weapons figure to be WRs Robert Woods and Nico Collins, along with TE Dalton Schultz, but Houston's offense will likely revolve around second-year RB Dameon Pierce. Perhaps the decently mobile Stroud can find some fantasy relevance by using his legs, but that wasn't a strong suit of his in college, as Stroud didn't post a single regular season rushing TD in his two years as the starter at Ohio State.

RB - Round 11, Pick 121 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 96

There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.

TE - Round 12, Pick 133 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: -

Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.

WR - Round 13, Pick 145 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 320

Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.

K - Round 14, Pick 157 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 141

Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.

DEF - Round 15, Pick 169 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 83

While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.

RB - Round 16, Pick 181 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 178

Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Mangeaux
1. (1) Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
2. (13) Justin Herbert (LAC - QB)
3. (25) DeVonta Smith (Phi - WR)
4. (37) Dameon Pierce (Hou - RB)
5. (49) Bijan Robinson (Atl - RB)
6. (61) Kyle Pitts (Atl - TE)
7. (73) Jahan Dotson (Was - WR)
8. (85) DeAndre Hopkins (Ten - WR)
9. (97) George Pickens (Pit - WR)
10. (109) C.J. Stroud (Hou - QB)
11. (121) Tyler Allgeier (Atl - RB)
12. (133) Sam LaPorta (Det - TE)
13. (145) Michael Thomas (NO - WR)
14. (157) Evan McPherson (Cin - K)
15. (169) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
16. (181) Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.