Grape Smugglers's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 177
A+ Grade
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Grape Smugglers Crush the Draft, Projected to Stomp Competition

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In a stunning display of draft mastery, the Grape Smugglers emerged from the depths of the 9th pick to secure an A+ grade. With a projected record of 13-1-0 and a first-place finish, it seems like the other teams in the Umass2000 league will be left squashed like grapes underfoot. The Grape Smugglers' draft strategy was as smooth as a fine wine, leaving their opponents in a state of intoxication.

The Grape Smugglers' success can be attributed to their keen eye for talent. Their best pick was Derrick Henry, who was snagged at 16th overall, one spot ahead of their ADP. Clearly, the Grape Smugglers have a nose for value. However, not every pick was a winner. The selection of Chris Godwin at 57th overall, well above their ADP of 76, left some scratching their heads. Perhaps the Grape Smugglers were hoping for a late-round surprise, but it seems they ended up with a sour grape instead.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 9

After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.

RB - Round 2, Pick 16 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 21

It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.

WR - Round 3, Pick 33 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 98

Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.

QB - Round 4, Pick 40 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 69 - 2022 Rank: 15

Fields had the second-best rushing season ever for a quarterback, and the Bears really didn't turn him loose until just before mid season. Durability down the stretch became a concern, as he injured his shoulder. Fields lacked legitimate receiving weapons last season. As a result, it was very difficult for the passing game to have any consistency. There was a short period of time after the coaching staff opened up the offense in which he had both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, and they had moderate success during that time. But Fields threw for over 190 yards just twice, with 254 being his highest mark of the season. However, he did throw touchdown passes in 11 of his last 13 games. With the team adding DJ Moore at receiver, Fields now goes into 2023 with a legitimate arsenal of weapons. If he's even passable as a thrower, this offense can quickly make a massive jump forward. And as long as Fields has his rushing ability, he'll be a very high-floor fantasy option. Improved passing production could make him elite.

WR - Round 5, Pick 57 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 50

Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.

RB - Round 6, Pick 64 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 39

Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.

WR - Round 7, Pick 81 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 91

Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.

K - Round 8, Pick 88 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 165

Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.

DEF - Round 9, Pick 105 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 189

In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.

WR - Round 10, Pick 112 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 2 - 2022 Rank: 6

After posting 1,400 yards as a rookie in 2021, Jefferson's production has increased by roughly a shocking 200 yards each season. He's also seen his targets go from 125 as a rookie to 184 last year. These are staggering numbers. He played 54% of the snaps in the slot, so the coaching staff definitely knows how to get him open and into space in many different ways. Jefferson had an incredible 10 games with at least a 100 yards with four of those games going for at least 150 yards. Jefferson scored between seven and 10 touchdowns in each of his three seasons. Not only is he as talented as any other receiver in the league, but his coaching staff understands the value of getting the ball in his hands frequently. The only minor concern is that he had a few games in which he mostly disappeared. He had six games with less than 50 yards receiving. In those games, the defense worked to take him out of the contest, and the coaching staff wasn't imaginative enough to overcome it. Regardless, the AP Offensive Player of the Year is still the safest option as the top player on draft boards.

TE - Round 11, Pick 129 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 134

Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.

QB - Round 12, Pick 136 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 151

After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.

RB - Round 13, Pick 153 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 353

Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.

WR - Round 14, Pick 160 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 182 - 2022 Rank: 277

Offseason knee surgery kept Jefferson out until Week 8 last season. When he returned, he had every opportunity to capitalize in the Rams' injury-riddled offense. By the time the team was down to a third-string quarterback and a bunch of depth pieces at wide receiver, Jefferson was seeing close to five targets per game. But he didn't do much with his opportunity, finishing with 24 receptions, 369 yards and three scores. He never caught more than three passes in a game. And that was with playing 64 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he frequently would get a free release from the line. The Rams traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers this offseason, leaving Jefferson as the No. 2 wideout to Cooper Kupp. That should give him plenty of opportunities this season to be a weekly threat in the passing game.

DEF - Round 15, Pick 177 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 245 - 2022 Rank: 131

Jacksonville was a better fantasy defense than real-life defense in 2022 by virtue of scoring four defensive touchdowns, which was third-most in the league. Otherwise, the Jaguars had 35 sacks (seventh-fewest) and allowed 353.3 scrimmage yards per game (ninth-most). This unit's largely returning its key personnel from last season, so the most obvious avenue for improvement is the potential evolution of 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker, who had just 3.5 sacks as a rookie. However, Jacksonville will likely face a far tougher schedule in 2023. Not only did the Jaguars win the AFC South last year after drafting first overall the previous two seasons, but two of the three other teams in their division (the Texans and Colts) could be much improved on offense after taking QBs with top-five draft picks.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Grape Smugglers
1. (9) Christian McCaffrey (SF - RB)
2. (16) Derrick Henry (Bal - RB)
3. (33) Keenan Allen (Chi - WR)
4. (40) Justin Fields (Pit - QB)
5. (57) Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
6. (64) Dalvin Cook (Bal - RB)
7. (81) Gabe Davis (Jax - WR)
8. (88) Evan McPherson (Cin - K)
9. (105) Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
10. (112) Justin Jefferson (Min - WR)
11. (129) Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE)
12. (136) Brock Purdy (SF - QB)
13. (153) Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB)
14. (160) Van Jefferson (Pit - WR)
15. (177) Jacksonville (Jax - DEF)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.