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Suburban Stampede's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 177
D- Grade
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Suburban Stampede's Draft: A Stampede Towards Last Place

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In the fantasy draft for A Few Good Men league, the Suburban Stampede found themselves in the unenviable 9th draft position. With a total of 15 rounds, they had plenty of opportunities to make their mark. Unfortunately, their draft grade of D- suggests that they might have missed the mark by a mile. Projected to finish dead last with a dismal 1-13-0 record, it seems like the Suburban Stampede is more likely to be trampled than to trample their opponents.

While the Suburban Stampede did manage to make a few decent picks, such as snagging Pat Freiermuth at 88 when their ADP was 76, their worst pick of Rachaad White at 57 (with an ADP of 85) left a lot to be desired. It's clear that the Stampede's strategy of drafting three players from the same team - Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow, and Tyler Boyd - might not pay off as well as they had hoped. With three players on bye week 7, it seems like the Suburban Stampede will be taking a break while their opponents charge ahead. Looks like this stampede might be more of a slow trot.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 43

During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.

WR - Round 2, Pick 16 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 23

After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.

WR - Round 3, Pick 33 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 78

Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.

QB - Round 4, Pick 40 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4

Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.

RB - Round 5, Pick 57 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 149

White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.

WR - Round 6, Pick 64 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 109

Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.

DEF - Round 7, Pick 81 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 57

Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,

TE - Round 8, Pick 88 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 180

During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

QB - Round 9, Pick 105 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 153 - 2022 Rank: 88

A 2022 first-round pick, Pickett took over as Pittsburgh's starting quarterback in Week 4 last year and maintained the position for the remainder of the year whenever he was healthy. He struggled mightily early on but showed improvement as the season progressed. All in all, Pickett's average pass target depth was 8.2 yards, placing him in the middle of the pack, while his YPA was 6.2, second worst in the league. His receivers' low YAC average of 4.0 partially contributed to this. Additionally, he was adversely affected by a dropped-pass percentage of 11.9, which was the fourth-highest in the league. The team didn't add much receiving help in the offseason, apart from post-prime Allen Robinson. However, George Pickens had an impressive rookie season in 2022 with over 800 yards, and TE Pat Freiermuth finished with over 700 yards. There's hope for a bounce-back year from Diontae Johnson, who was the league's least efficient high-volume receiver last year. Even if Johnson struggles again, Pickett's league-low 10.9 TD pass percentage in the red zone can only improve. The Steelers are expected to focus on running the ball with Najee Harris as the lead RB, but Pickett's ability to add to the ground game -- three TDs and an average of 18.2 yards per game last season -- should not be underestimated.

RB - Round 10, Pick 112 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 133 - 2022 Rank: 770

Bigsby was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Jaguars after posting 2,903 yards and 25 touchdowns on 540 carries (5.4 YPC) in 35 games over the past three years at Auburn. The 6-foot, 210-pound Bigsby reportedly impressed as both a rusher and pass catcher at OTAs, further entrenching his standing as the top backup to Travis Etienne. While Etienne was a big play machine in his first NFL season last year, he struggled to churn out consistent gains at times, so Bigsby has a direct path to a prominent role in clock-killing situations, which could be plentiful if the Jaguars play up to their billing as favorites in the AFC South. Bigsby will need to hold off RBs D'Ernest Johnson, JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner, and Qadree Ollison in camp and preseason, but the rookie is the clear favorite to open his NFL career as the No. 2 option behind Etienne, if not the 1B in a platoon.

WR - Round 11, Pick 129 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 126

Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.

TE - Round 12, Pick 136 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 751

Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.

RB - Round 13, Pick 153 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 193 - 2022 Rank: 82

Singletary spent most of the past four years as Buffalo's starting RB after being selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He averaged a respectable 4.7 YPC over that span, and after scoring just six scrimmage touchdowns in his first two seasons, Singletary found the end zone 14 times over the last two years. Despite underwhelming measurables (5-foot-8 and 203 pounds with 4.66 speed), Singletary has proven to be a capable NFL running back, but he's looking at a massive downgrade in the situation heading into 2023. After playing the lead RB role in one of the league's most prolific offenses, Singletary's expected to be bumped to the backup spot behind Dameon Pierce in a Houston offense that's been one of the least effective in recent years. The Texans are going through a makeover on offense, and the addition of Singletary on a one-year deal is part of that effort, but there isn't much upside here barring an injury to Pierce. Perhaps Singletary can carve out more playing time on passing downs since Pierce is unproven as a receiver, though Singletary's career mark of 5.0 yards per target doesn't inspire much confidence in that regard, either.

WR - Round 14, Pick 160 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 168 - 2022 Rank: 761

After his impressive showing at the combine this spring, Mingo was the fifth wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, going to Carolina with the 39th overall pick. He displayed his potential by running a 4.46 40, bench-pressing 22 reps, broad-jumping 129 inches and posting a 39.5-inch vertical at 6-foot-2, 220. Although his college career at Ole Miss initially lacked luster, Mingo broke out with a 15-290-3 line in his first three games of his junior season (2021) before fracturing his foot during practice. He made a comeback last year but was far from dominant, finishing second on the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, behind Malik Heath (who ran a 4.64 40 and went undrafted). Despite the largely underwhelming college career, Mingo has a chance to quickly earn a significant amount of playing time in Carolina, where he may even reprise his college role as an oversized slot receiver. His main competition for snaps figures to come from Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall in an offense led by coach Frank Reich and quarterback Bryce Young.

K - Round 15, Pick 177 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 201 - 2022 Rank: 133

Sanders managed a career-high 41 PATs in coach Mike McDaniel's high-flying offense last season, while also converting 81 percent of his 32 field-goal attempts. He went an impressive 12 of 13 from the 40-49 range, but only converted 2 of 6 from 50+ yards out. Though he may not be more than a slightly above league-average kicker, Sanders' leg strength allows his number to be dialed from a wide range of positions on the field. The Dolphins' offense projects to be among one of the league's better scoring units, and if the team's additions on defense also work out, Sanders could find himself in position to close out games more often.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Suburban Stampede
1. (9) Joe Mixon (Hou - RB)
2. (16) A.J. Brown (Phi - WR)
3. (33) DJ Moore (Chi - WR)
4. (40) Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
5. (57) Rachaad White (TB - RB)
6. (64) Christian Watson (GB - WR)
7. (81) Dallas (Dal - DEF)
8. (88) Pat Freiermuth (Pit - TE)
9. (105) Kenny Pickett (Phi - QB)
10. (112) Tank Bigsby (Jax - RB)
11. (129) Tyler Boyd (Cin - WR)
12. (136) Dalton Kincaid (Buf - TE)
13. (153) Devin Singletary (NYG - RB)
14. (160) Jonathan Mingo (Car - WR)
15. (177) Jason Sanders (Mia - K)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.