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Boss HOGG's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 179
C Grade
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Boss HOGG's Draft: A C-grade Performance with a 6th Place Finish

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In the wild and wacky world of The Annexation of Puerto Rico fantasy league, Boss HOGG made their mark with a draft that left everyone scratching their heads. With the 11th pick in the draft order, they had their work cut out for them, and it showed in their C-grade performance. But hey, who needs an A when you can settle for mediocrity? Projected to finish 6th, Boss HOGG is poised to make a splash in the middle of the pack, proving that being average is their specialty.

Boss HOGG's draft strategy seemed to be a mix of brilliance and questionable decision-making. Their best pick was Jaylen Waddle, snatched up at 35 when their ADP was 25. A steal? Perhaps. But then they followed it up with their worst pick, reaching for Dallas Goedert at 38 when their ADP was a lowly 56. It's like they were playing a game of fantasy football bingo, with four players drafted from the same team: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia, Jake Elliott, and Kenneth Gainwell. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket! With three players on bye week 13, Boss HOGG is set to experience a rollercoaster of emotions. Good luck, Boss HOGG, you're gonna need it!

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 28

Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.

WR - Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 37

Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.

WR - Round 3, Pick 35 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 48

Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.

TE - Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 171

Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.

QB - Round 5, Pick 59 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 9

Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.

WR - Round 6, Pick 62 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 82

Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.

DEF - Round 7, Pick 83 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 96

While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.

RB - Round 8, Pick 86 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 70 - 2022 Rank: 87

Montgomery was serviceable, though not great during his four years in Chicago. He had less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those years. Explosiveness is an issue. Last year, he was held to just two runs of 20 or more yards, which was the worst of his career. Just like in college, his broken tackle rate is excellent. He was in the 84th percentile in that category. However, he didn't do very much after getting defenders to miss. He ended up in the 50th percentile in yards after contact. He didn't reach 80 yards rushing in a game after Week 2, though he didn't see more than 17 carries in any game. He did see his receiving usage increase toward the end of the season. He was targeted three-to-five times in each of his last six games before a meaningless Week 18 contest. Although not the same physical presence, Montgomery should slot into much of the role that Jamaal Williams had with Detroit last year. The problem is that Montgomery is better as a pass catcher than a runner. And that's where Jahmyr Gibbs is likely superior. Also, Montgomery may not be at the same level of goal line back compared to Williams. It's a confusing situation, but the upside is a solid RB2 but there are many paths to him being just a flex option.

K - Round 9, Pick 107 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 154

Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.

WR - Round 10, Pick 110 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 751

Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.

QB - Round 11, Pick 131 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 10

In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.

WR - Round 12, Pick 134 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 276

Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.

RB - Round 13, Pick 155 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 86 - 2022 Rank: 263

Gainwell gave a glimpse of what he might be able to accomplish in a bigger role in last season's wild-card win over the Giants, erupting for 112 rushing yards and a touchdown, but that could well end up being the high point of his Eagles tenure. A fifth-round pick in 2021, Gainwell's a valuable depth option in Nick Siranni's scheme, but his biggest asset is receiving skills that often go under-utilized in an offense that would rather have Jalen Hurts keep the ball himself than dump it off to a running back. Miles Sanders, another back who didn't get the workload his talent may have warranted, left for Carolina in the offseason, but Gainwell's shot at rising up the depth chart got thwarted when the team signed Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for D'Andre Swift. The two imports have long injury histories though, so Gainwell might yet get a look as the Eagles' starter if both Swift and Penny happen to be on the shelf at the same time.

DEF - Round 14, Pick 158 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 180

In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.

TE - Round 15, Pick 179 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 239

Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Boss HOGG
1. (11) Josh Jacobs (GB - RB)
2. (14) Stefon Diggs (Buf - WR)
3. (35) Jaylen Waddle (Mia - WR)
4. (38) Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE)
5. (59) Trevor Lawrence (Jax - QB)
6. (62) DJ Moore (Chi - WR)
7. (83) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
8. (86) David Montgomery (Det - RB)
9. (107) Jake Elliott (Phi - K)
10. (110) Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea - WR)
11. (131) Jared Goff (Det - QB)
12. (134) Elijah Moore (Cle - WR)
13. (155) Kenneth Gainwell (Phi - RB)
14. (158) Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
15. (179) Hunter Henry (NE - TE)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.