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Meat Pony's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 20, Pick 193
A+ Grade
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Meat Pony Gallops to Victory with Flawless Draft Performance

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In a stunning display of draft dominance, the Meat Pony team has left their opponents quaking in their horseshoes. With a draft grade of A+ and a projected finish of 1st, this team is poised to trample the competition. The Meat Pony team's owner, known for their uncanny ability to spot talent, made the best pick of the draft by selecting Trevor Lawrence at 53, a full 6 spots ahead of their ADP. It seems that the Meat Pony team is galloping towards success, leaving other teams in the dust.

While the Meat Pony team's draft performance was nearly flawless, there was one small hiccup. The owner's enthusiasm got the better of them when they reached for Elijah Moore at 73, a full 47 spots ahead of their ADP. But hey, nobody's perfect, right? Despite this minor misstep, the Meat Pony team's projected record of 15-0-0 speaks volumes about their potential dominance. With a schedule difficulty ranked as the 9th toughest out of 10 teams, it seems that the Meat Pony team will be facing little more than a light trot on their path to victory. Watch out, league, because the Meat Pony team is ready to show you what real horsepower looks like!

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 753

One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.

WR - Round 2, Pick 8 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 99

Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.

RB - Round 3, Pick 16 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 148

Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.

WR - Round 4, Pick 28 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 97

Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.

TE - Round 5, Pick 40 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 286

Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.

RB - Round 6, Pick 48 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 178

White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.

QB - Round 7, Pick 53 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 6

Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.

WR - Round 8, Pick 73 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 267

Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.

RB - Round 9, Pick 88 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 113 - 2022 Rank: 763

Even though the Seahawks had a strong rookie season from Kenneth Walker last year, the team used their second-round draft pick for the second year in a row to add Charbonnet. While in college, Charbonnet forced many missed tackles while also having the power to break tackles as well. In addition, he caught 37 passes and proved to be a solid receiver. It's possible that he was drafted to add depth to a thin backfield, but Seattle may also want Charbonnet to be a big factor in their backfield. It's likely that Walker has the edge for lead work going into the season, though Charbonnet should see significant work each week. However, if Charbonnet outplays Walker, don't be surprised if coach Pete Carroll changes the running back roles.

TE - Round 10, Pick 93 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: 757

Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.

WR - Round 11, Pick 108 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 154 - 2022 Rank: 434

Williams will miss the first six games of the year due to suspension. As a rookie last year, he was eased into the lineup after suffering an ACL injury during his last year in college. He was targeted nine times, but he showed game-breaking speed -- his only catch was a 41-yard touchdown. Even when he was running routes on which he wasn't targeted, he usually looked like the fastest player on the field. And although it didn't show up on the stat sheet, he had a 66-yard touchdown called back by penalty. In fantasy drafts, he should be treated with the uncertainty of a supremely talented rookie with a ceiling of 11 games played. But the traits that led him to be a first-round pick are apparent.

DEF - Round 12, Pick 113 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 216 - 2022 Rank: 100

Coach Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme dragged Miami to a playoff appearance last season, but the need for improvements on defense were obvious. Enter DC extraordinaire Vic Fangio, who promises not only to unlock Bradley Chubb (traded to the Dolphins last November), but provide a salve across the board. Chubb isn't the only name of note up front, with the presence of 2021 first-rounder Jaelen Phillip also being notable. Free-agency additions LB David Long and S DeShon Elliott arrive to reinforce returning starters LB Jerome Baker and S Jevon Holland, giving Miami a well-rounded core before even accounting for the team's standout CB duo. Trading for CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Xavien Howard puts legitimate top-5 upside within range for this defensive unit.

QB - Round 13, Pick 128 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 44 - 2022 Rank: 748

The Colts couldn't pass up Richardson's tremendous athletic upside with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The rookie out of Florida is raw, having completed only 53.8 percent of his passes last season, but Richardson has one of the most impressive physical profiles ever among QB prospects. Richarson has a cannon for an arm at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, plus he boasts 4.44 speed and set the QB record at the NFL Combine with a 40.5-inch vertical jump. Indianapolis also brought in Gardner Minshew in free agency, but it's likely just a matter of time until Richardson is handed the reins to the offense, and the rookie should be involved in short yardage and goal-line packages from the get-go. Even under the tutelage of head coach Shane Steichen, who oversaw the meteoric rise of fellow dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator over the past two seasons, Richardson will likely struggle as a passer early in his NFL career, especially with few established targets to throw to besides Michael Pittman in a run-first offense centered around RB Jonathan Taylor. Still, Richardson's rushing ability (nine rushing TDs in 2022) makes him the most intriguing member of this rookie QB class from a fantasy perspective, as Justin Fields proved last year that you don't need to be a proficient passer to find significant fantasy success as a QB in the modern NFL.

DEF - Round 14, Pick 133 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 197 - 2022 Rank: 74

Green Bay was in the middle of the pack in points allowed (371) last year. The Packers had playmakers in the secondary that helped them finish fifth in the league with 17 interceptions. But in terms of pass rush, they recorded just 34 sacks, the sixth-fewest in the league. As has been the case the last few years, the Packers project to be a terrible run defense. They don't have a single run defender who is considered a plus option. The pass defense continues to be one of the better ones in the league, though. Not only is the cornerback group strong, led by Jaire Alexander, but safety Rudy Ford as well as the LBs are outstanding. Rashan Gary is easily their best pass rusher, and if Lukas Van Ness is able to pressure consistently, they'd have great bookends. On paper, this should be an average defense, but they're not dominant in any one area. As a result, this will likely be a middling and uninspiring fantasy unit.

K - Round 15, Pick 148 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 151

Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.

RB - Round 16, Pick 153 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 183 - 2022 Rank: 123

Wilson re-signs with Miami to spend a sixth straight season in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Four of those years were in San Francisco, where Wilson proved himself as a more than capable rotational option. Durability issues have remained constant as well, though. Wilson hasn't managed to suit up for double-digit games since 2020, and he's only managed that feat twice in his NFL career. After joining the Dolphins mid-season via trade from San Francisco last year, Wilson established himself in a roughly even timeshare alongside Raheem Mostert, though he was the volume leader prior to injuring his hip. Miami could proceed with an identical layout to open the 2023 slate, with Mostert also having re-signed this offseason, but rookie third-round pick De'Von Achane reportedly began pushing for opportunities early in OTAs. Wilson is a solid pass-catcher and showed elite efficiency last season (5.1 YPC), but he'll open this year on injured reserve and thus is set to miss at least four games.

QB - Round 17, Pick 168 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 117 - 2022 Rank: 30

Carr threw 24 or fewer TD passes in five of the last six years. He also has been held to fewer than 29 TD passes in nine of 10 seasons with a career high of 32 in 2015. It speaks volumes that the Raiders basically sent him home for the last three games of last season, eventually letting him walk with no real backup plan or compensation in return. Joey Bosa called it out a couple of years ago when he said that Carr folds under pressure. Last year, Carr had good blocking from his tackles, though the interior was a mess. Now with the Saints, he'll have solid RT play from Ryan Ramczyk. But unless the other linemen make jumps in previous effectiveness, this line will be a problem for Carr. Expect the Saints to hope their defense can keep them competitive. Also, look for a slow pace on offense with an emphasis on the running game when possible. The downfield passing could be a problem due to the OL, so Carr will need to have success in the short and intermediate areas. He'll likely be a borderline top-24 QB.

RB - Round 18, Pick 173 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 59

After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.

RB - Round 19, Pick 188 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 27

Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.

WR - Round 20, Pick 193 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 52

The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Meat Pony
1. (1) Bijan Robinson (Atl - RB)
2. (8) Chris Olave (NO - WR)
3. (16) Cam Akers (Min - RB)
4. (28) DJ Moore (Chi - WR)
5. (40) Kyle Pitts (Atl - TE)
6. (48) Rachaad White (TB - RB)
7. (53) Trevor Lawrence (Jax - QB)
8. (73) Elijah Moore (Cle - WR)
9. (88) Zach Charbonnet (Sea - RB)
10. (93) Sam LaPorta (Det - TE)
11. (108) Jameson Williams (Det - WR)
12. (113) Miami (Mia - DEF)
13. (128) Anthony Richardson (Ind - QB)
14. (133) Green Bay (GB - DEF)
15. (148) Jake Elliott (Phi - K)
16. (153) Jeff Wilson Jr. (Mia - RB)
17. (168) Derek Carr (NO - QB)
18. (173) Travis Etienne Jr. (Jax - RB)
19. (188) Saquon Barkley (Phi - RB)
20. (193) Ja'Marr Chase (Cin - WR)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.